Umthombo:Oriental Fortune
Imikhiqizo yemboni yephepha yaseChina ingahlukaniswa “ngemikhiqizo yephepha” kanye “nemikhiqizo yamakhadibhodi” ngokuya ngokusetshenziswa kwayo. Imikhiqizo yamaphepha ihlanganisa i-newsprint, iphepha lokugoqa, iphepha lasendlini nokunye. Imikhiqizo yekhadibhodi ihlanganisa ibhodi lebhokisi likathayela kanyeIbhodi lebhokisi lokugoqa le-FBB
Njengengxenye ebalulekile yemboni yokupakisha, imakethe yamabhokisi enziwe ngothayela idlala indima ebalulekile ekuthuthukisweni komnotho waseChina. Ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwemboni yokupakisha yaseChina kanye nokwenyuka kancane kancane kwesidingo semikhiqizo yamaphepha ngo-2023, imakethe yamabhokisi ekhadibhodi ikhombisa amathuba okukhula athembisayo.
Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izinkomba eziphambili zokukhula komnotho wase-US, njengezinkomba ze-Chamber of Commerce's Leading Economic Activity, i-PMI engakhiqizi, izinga lokungasebenzi, ijika lesivuno elihlanekezelwe, indima eyinkomba yesidingo samabhokisi ekhadibhodi ekuwohlokeni komnotho cishe ayinakwa, kodwa lokhu akuthinti ukubaluleka kwayo kochwepheshe nezifundiswa ukuze kutholakale iphuzu lomnotho libe ukuwohloka komnotho ukuze kubhekwe.
Ukuwohloka kwebhokisi lekhadibhodi, incazelo yalo iyisidingo semikhiqizo yekhadibhodi yephepha kumakota ambalwa alandelanayo wokufinyela. Kuwo wonke umnotho wase-US ekuwohlokeni komnotho kwakamuva, into ethi "Cardboard Box Recession" cishe njalo emnothweni yaba ukuwohloka komnotho ngaphambi "kokukhanya okubomvu" kokuqala.
Umkhiqizi wesithathu omkhulu wamabhokisi wekhadibhodi wase-US uPackaging Corp of America (Packaging Corp of America) umemezele kuleli sonto, kulandela ukwehla ngo-12.7% kwikota yokuqala, ukwehla okukhulu kunakho konke emlandweni, ngemuva kwekota yesibili.Ikhadibhodi likathayelaukuthengiswa kwehle ngo-9.8% unyaka nonyaka. Ngokusho kwedatha ehlanganiswe yiFreightWaves Research, inkampani yezobunhloli, i-US Packaging Corp of America ezingxenyeni ezimbili zokugcina zokwehla kokuthengiswa kwamabhokisi amakhadibhodi kufinyelele okukhulu kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2009.
Ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo esheshayo kwe-Federal Reserve kunciphise isidingo samabhokisi ekhadibhodi, futhi isidingo singase singena ekwehleni okuhlala isikhathi eside. Ngesikhathi sendawo sama-26, njengoba kulindelwe kabanzi yimakethe, i-Fed inyuse izinga layo lenzalo elihlosiwe ngamaphuzu angama-25 laya endaweni ephakeme yeminyaka engama-22 engu-5.25% -5.5% emhlanganweni wayo wezinga likaJulayi. Kuze kube manje, kusukela ngoMashi 2022 ukuze kuvulwe umzuliswano wamanje wokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo kusukela kule nqubo, i-Fed inyuse izilinganiso zenzalo izikhathi eziyi-11, okuyisivinini esisheshayo sokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1980s.
Ukwehla kweibhodi lephephaukuthunyelwa kuwuphawu lwezinkinga zomnotho ezibanzi.” Kukuphi ukwehla komnotho?” UDanielle DiMartino Booth, oyi-CEO ye-QI Research, uye ezinkundleni zokuxhumana ukuze aziba ngokubhuqa izinkinga ezivezwe ukusebenza kwezinkampani zokupakisha zase-US.
I-US iphakathi “kokwehla komnotho wekhadibhodi,” okungase kuholele emakethe yemisebenzi ebuthakathaka kanye nengcindezi eyengeziwe emalini etholwa yizinkampani, kodwa futhi kungaholela ekwehleni okukhulu kwamandla emali ekupheleni konyaka.
UKlein Topper uthe embikweni wangoMsombuluko, yize ukwehla komnotho kuvame ukuholela ekutheni yonke imikhakha yezomnotho ihlehle, kodwa okwamanje yimikhakha yezokukhiqiza neyohwebo kuphela eyehle kakhulu. Ngokusho kwe-US Fiber Box Association, lokhu kuholele ekwehleni kwesidingo samabhokisi amakhadibhodi - inkomba enganakiwe yokuwohloka komnotho okwandulela ukuwohloka komnotho wase-US kwangaphambilini.
Nakuba i-US ingazange imemezele ngokusemthethweni ukuthi umnotho usesimweni sokuwohloka komnotho, kodwa i-Knechteling Top ithe umnotho wase-US okwamanje "usesimweni sokuwohloka kwamakhadibhodi", okungaholela emakethe yemisebenzi ebuthakathaka, amabhizinisi abhekana nezingcindezi ezinkulu zenzuzo. Abatshalizimali bangase futhi babone ukubuyiselwa kwemakethe yamasheya ephansi, ikakhulukazi uma umkhuba obuthakathaka usakazekela kwezinye izimboni ezifana nezinsizakalo.
Kodwa ukwehla kungase kunikeze inhlansi yethemba lokwehla kwamandla emali, njengoba amanani okukhiqiza - kuhlanganise nezintengo zamabhokisi ekhadibhodi - kudatha ye-PMI yase-US ngokuvamile cishe izinyanga eziyisithupha ngaphambi kokwehla kwamandla emali.
Idatha yabonisa ukuthi amanani e-US asebenzise amabhokisi kathayela (OCC) akhuphuke ngenyanga yesibili elandelanayo engxenyeni enkulu yeNyakatho Melika evikini lokuqala likaMeyi, enyusa inani lentengo ye-OCC yenyanga. Sekukonke, isilinganiso senani le-US OCC sikhuphuke ngo-$12 kusukela ngoJanuwari.
Izifunda eziyisikhombisa kweziyisishiyagalolunye ezilandelwa yi-RISI's P&PW zibike amanani aphezulu e-OCC ekuqaleni kukaMeyi. ENingizimu-mpumalanga, eNyakatho-mpumalanga, eMidwestern, eNingizimu-ntshonalanga, nasePacific Northwestern US, izintengo zedokhi yomthengisi we-FOB bezikhuphuke ngo-$5.
Ngomsebenzi wasekhaya wokugaya amaphepha wase-US, amanani e-OCC ehle kuwo wonke amamaki enqwaba ezindaweni zase-Los Angeles nase-San Francisco. Lesi yisifunda kuphela lapho kuthiwa ukuhlinzekwa kwempahla kudlula isidingo. Ku-OCC ne-DLK entsha, ukukhiqizwa kwebanga lenqwaba kuthiwa kuzohlala kumile, kufika ku-25% e-US.
Izinga lemakethe lemboni yamabhokisi ekhadibhodi yaseShayina lifinyelele emashumini ezigidigidi zama-RMB ngo-2023, okuwukunyuka cishe ngo-10% kunonyaka odlule. Lokhu kwanda kwengxenye yemakethe kudalwe kakhulu ukukhula komnotho waseChina okuqinile, imboni ye-e-commerce ekhulayo, kanye nezimboni zezokuthutha.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-02-2023